Rutgers Enviro-Notes, Jan-March 2005

Land use is the arguably the top environmental issue in New Jersey, but it is a big, unwieldy topic that often frustrates efforts at objective analysis. To help focus our thinking and provoke discussion we have elected to consider land use in the context of the proposition that in 40 years New Jersey will be fully built out. This comes from an

estimate in a 2001 paper by John Hasse and Richard G Lathrop, Director of the Grant Walton Center for Remote Sensing at Rutgers.

What does 40 years to buildout mean? Is New Jersey unique in facing buildout? Does the prospect of being the first state to reach buildout suggest actions that should be initiated in preparation? What impacts can we expect on the economy, the environment and the quality of life? New Jersey is one of the most densely populated areas on earth, but there are others.

Buildout implies a finite supply of land and socially imposed limits to growth. New Jersey’s land is limited by virtue of its boundaries, but, unlike an island (Taiwan, Hawaii?), there is adjacent land outside it’s boundaries which may support development or services that will impact New Jersey. Since New Jersey is a fully zoned state it is somewhat unique in that this zoning is one of the main socially imposed constraints on land use. Other constraints are land dedicated to parks and land preservation programs. Infrastructure such as roads, water and sanitation will be and are limiting.

Will the socio-political regulations such as zoning and land preservation fall to the demand for increased density. Will technological developments enable increasing density without environmental and social collapse? Will the economy support all this? These are some of the questions that occur when contemplating life in full buildout. The answers are largely up to each of us to discover but to help stimulate your thought we have invited some of the top researchers, scholars and thinkers in the state to report on their work and help shed some light on this topic. - B. Barbour

The more important question to be asked is not when build-out will be reached, but what will New Jersey’s built-out landscape look like and how will it function for both New Jersey’s human and nonhuman community.

― Haase and Lathrop, “Measuring Urban Growth in New Jersey,” Cook College, Rutgers University, 2001

The figure of 40 years to buildout is based on a straight-line extrapolation of past trends in land conversion. This is acknowledged openly in a lengthy section on “cautions and caveats” contained in the fine Cook College report (quoted above) that generated this provocative number.

My purpose is not to contest the 40-year figure on this basis. In fact, authors Haas and Lathrop consider a number of buildout scenarios, concluding that “even if the exact date cannot be foreseen with certainty…near total build-out will likely be approached in New Jersey sometime within the middle of this century.” This statement seems reasonable, and it does not change the present discussion in any substantive way.

If you allow yourself to consider rather sharp departures from trend, however ― and especially if you realize that the prospect of impending buildout can itself affect political behavior in a radical new way ― then you might be able to get some important insights into the ultimate character of “buildout New Jersey,” if not necessarily its timing.

Can there be any doubt that the prospect of buildout in 40 or 50 years was a contributing factor in the passage of the recent Highlands legislation? With buildout half a century away, New Jersey voters seem to feel that their back is already up against the wall. In some ways, the state’s new land use activism shows evidence of a remarkably long time horizon for the typical politician, which ought to be applauded. In other ways, it appears that voters and politicians may be panicking, in the process going beyond what regional planners regard as effective environmental design for the long run.

Consider the phenomenon of local downzoning, defined as a substantial increase in the minimum lot size permitted on undeveloped land. In a study I conducted with former Cook Executive Dean Soji Adelaja, I discovered that some 86 of the state’s 266 exurban communities (32%) had engaged in downzoning since 1995 alone. This represents a rapid acceleration in this practice, with implications for buildout that are very far from straight-line indeed.

Let’s say that five-acre zoning in the state’s undeveloped areas becomes the norm, but

homeowner demand for such large lots remains robust. Hasse and Lathrop predict that in this case, buildout in New Jersey would actually take place in 20 years, not 40―though obviously, much open space would remain in “backyards.” Alternatively, if a residential market for such large lots does not materialize, the state’s farmers could be stuck in a kind of limbo: uninterested in keeping their land open (and farmed) because it is no longer appreciating in value, but unable to find a buyer. This is a scenario that should perhaps be given somewhat more credence. It might feature accelerated large-lot zoning at sizes of 10 acres or more, followed by non-development and a cohort of very unhappy farmers. The result would be a kind of instantaneous buildout (defined roughly as the end of growth), featuring a ton of privately-held open space that is essentially unmarketable.

Naturally, as an economist I think can contribute some insights on land’s marketability for residential use that would be helpful for this kind of forecasting. My broader point, however, is that political anti-growth sentiment has the potential to lower New Jersey’s future densities to an unknown, and possibly dramatic, extent. Technically the Highlands legislation is designed to redistribute density rather than lower it. But a political realist must acknowledge that future Highlands densities are likely to be lower, overall, than they would have been in the absence of the Act.

None of this would necessarily be a problem if there were a universal consensus that reduced overall densities, achieved using local large-lot zoning, represent the best way to achieve the state’s environmental planning objectives ― giving due consideration to all the policy alternatives that are politically and financially feasible today. In the academic literature, local large-lot zoning is generally perceived as the growth management tool most likely to be driven by exclusionary and fiscal motivations, and least likely to be environmentally sensitive. This broad theory on motives is suggestive, but it cannot be said that it adds up to a definitive condemnation of the practice.

We do not currently have good evidence on downzoning’s effectiveness as a planning tool. I am afraid we do not have a lot of time to find out. - Dr. Paul Gottlieb, RCRE Specialist in Land Use Policy.

You can read the full text of Dr.Gottlieb's recent article on "The Political Economy of Downzoning by clicking here.

It’s now been just a little more than 43 years since New Jersey voters approved the

first Green Acres Bond Act in 1961 to purchase open space throughout the Garden State. Since that time, the preservation of open space and farmland, as well as aggressive efforts to combat sprawl, have become a mainstay of our politics and public policy here in the most densely populated state in the nation.

New Jersey has devoted significant public resources and implemented substantial pubic policy initiatives to combat sprawl and win the race for open space. The list of these efforts is impressive by any standard: nine bond referenda dedicating more than $1.4 billion for land and development easement purchases since 1961; the landmark Farmland Assessment program which was written into the state constitution in 1964; a state and regional land use regulatory system which is among the most stringent in the country; and last, but not least, the constitutional dedication in 1998 of some $98 million per year for thirty years to provide a stable source of funding through 2009 for the ambitious goal of preserving one million of the state’s remaining two million undeveloped acres. And, for good measure, in more than 200 of our 566 municipalities and in all 21 of our counties, local voters have approved dedicated local property taxes for land acquisition, which means that New Jersey has almost twice as many such local open space funds than exist in any other state.

Thus far, these public policies have achieved impressive results: more than 1.3 million acres of open space and farmland have already been preserved by governmental and non-profit conservation organizations, and these numbers are climbing every day. This means that roughly 27% of New Jersey’s land area of approximately 4.8 million acres is already permanently preserved, and that percentage could go as high as 35 - 40% within the next decade.

Yet for all of the intensity of this determined assault on sprawl, New Jersey also has the distinction of being on an inevitable trajectory to become the very first state in the nation where complete build-out occurs. Variably estimated to occur within 25 to 40 years, this build-out means that, within the foreseeable future, the Garden State will exhaust its supply of vacant land available for development.

The likely impacts of this phenomenon could be staggering, and New Jersey will have no other state’s experience to turn to as we come to grips with this new reality. For starters, it most certainly means that the next several decades may well represent the last chance t

o finish the Herculean open space task which began only 43 years ago. If we wish to preserve a critical mass of prime farmland sufficient to continue to warrant our nickname, to provide ample passive and active recreational open space for our citizens, and to safeguard the very functioning of the ecosystems which provide us with clean drinking water, flood control and provide habitat for a host of plant and animal species, we must act quickly before it is too late.

The emerging reality of build-out means that it is time for all New Jerseyans to think deeply about what kind of state we want to leave to future generations, and to continue to find ways to harness new public policies to implement that vision. For our public institutions, this means that the next few decades are no time to rest on our laurels, but, rather, a time to re-focus our efforts on specific and even more innovative public policies. Clearly, we will need the research and scientific basis for sound financial and social policies which can maximize our ability to shape the future New Jersey. This suggests that we must accelerate public and private programs to redevelop and revitalize our cities and older suburbs while also maximizing both the quantity of preserved acreage across the state, as well as the ecological value and accessibility of that acreage, if we truly wish to preserve the future quality of life in communities across our state.

New Jersey residents and especially, New Jersey voters, seem to instinctively comprehend what is at stake as we approach build-out, and there is every likelihood that they will not only continue to support, but will likely demand that their governments prepare the state for this brave new world.

For our part, we here at Conservation Resources are committed to providing the conservation community with financial and technical assistance necessary to insure success. In order to accomplish this, we have established seven geographic funds covering the entire state, and we are in the process of raising capital for these funds so that we can support exemplary conservation projects throughout the Garden State. To learn more about what we are doing to help prepare New Jersey for build-out, please visit us at www.conservationresourcesinc. -Michael Catania, President, Conservation Resources Inc.

In March of 2004, the State of New Jersey adopted the Phase II Stormwater Management Rules. These rules set forth guidelines for municipal implementation of the new stormwater regulations through the New Jersey Pollution Discharge Elimination System (NJPDES) Permit Program and rules for new construction and redevelopment through the Division of Watershed Management. Through the NJPDES permit program municipalities are required to comply with new regulations such as adopting new ordinances, retrofitting storm drain grates, street sweeping, writing a stormwater pollution prevention plan and a stormwater management plan, and regulating best management measures in the municipal public works departments, to name a few.

In order to assist the 37 municipalities with in Barnegat Bay watershed, the Barnegat Bay Phase II Municipal Steering Committee was formed. This committee is a group of interested county, academic, and local educational organizations, who have organized together to provide outreach and assistance to municipalities in the Barnegat Bay Watershed regarding the new Phase II stormwater regulations. The steering committees’ efforts in the watershed have consists of workshops, technical assistance opportunities, public outreach assistance and stormwater resources. Topics for outreach have included low impact design, writing a municipal stormwater management plan, Department of Public Works requirements, and overviews of the municipal stormwater permitting program. Additionally, we provided municipalities a timeline matrix indicating when requirements are due and storm drain labels and door hangers to educate municipal residents about stormwater and no point source pollution. To date, the steering committee has either offered or planned 5 workshops around the watershed. One additional workshop will be planned for a future date.

Funding for this outreach has been obtained through the Barnegat Bay National Estuary Program and the Jacques Cousteau National Estuarine Research Reserve’s Coastal Training Program (CTP). Additional information about stormwater outreach and other municipal outreach programs offered through the CTP can be found at: www.jcnerr.org/coastal_training . -Lisa Weiss, Watershed Coordinator, Jacques Cousteau National Estuarine Research Reserve

n 2004, researchers at the Jacques Cousteau National Estuarine Research Reserve (Figure 1) conducted detailed sampling of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in Little Egg Harbor to determine: (1) the demographic characteristics and spatial habitat change of SAV (Zostera marina and Ruppia maritima) in the system over an annual growing period; (2) the species composition, relative abundance, and potential impacts of benthic macroalgae on the SAV beds; and (3) the potential impacts of brown tide (Aureococcus anophagefferans) on the SAV. Two disjunct SAV beds in Little Egg Harbor, covering a total area of ~1700 ha, were sampled at ten equally spaced points along six, east-west trending transects in spring, summer, and fall of 2004. Sampling was conducted during June, August, and October, and November. More than 175 samples were collected at 60 transect sites during the sampling period. At each sampling site, the following demographic data were collected: percent cover per SAV species, aboveground and belowground biomass per SAV species, sheath and stem biomass per SAV species, leaf biomass per SAV species, average shoot height, average shoot width, number of shoots, as well as abundance and percent cover by macroalgae species. In addition, physico-chemical data (temperature, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, and percent sand, silt, and clay) were also collected at each sampling site. Nutrient data (ammonium, nitrate, nitrite, total organic nitrogen, and orthophosphate) were also collect along the sampling transects. These data are being analyzed through spring 2005, with a report of findings scheduled for summer 2005.

The major objective of this project is to determine the changes that occur in

demographic characteristics of the SAV during an annual growing period in Little Egg Harbor. The ultimate goal is to develop a better understanding of the natural variability of the SAV beds and to assess potential human impacts on them. The SAV beds are essential habitat to numerous estuarine organisms in New Jersey. Some of the questions that are being addressed by this investigation include the following:

• What quantitative changes take place in aboveground and belowground biomass, shoot or stem density, leaf and shoot width, and maximum canopy height of SAV beds over a growing season?

• How variable is the percent cover by each SAV species within the field survey areas? Is seasonal dominance evident among the species? Are shifts in spatial distribution of the SAV species significant within a growing season?

• Do the SAV bed boundaries expand, contract, or remain unchanged over a seasonal sampling period?

• Where is the maximum species abundance observed in the sampling segments and can this abundance be related to specific environmental factors?

• Can the surveys differentiate natural variability of the SAV from that induced by anthropogenic activities?

This project is in response to multiple coastal management needs. SAV is recognized as a critically important benthic habitat that receives special consideration in New Jersey. Because of the critical importance of SAV as habitat, the same type of study will be conducted in Barnegat Bay during spring, summer, and fall of 2005.

Additional information on this research project can be obtained from Dr. Michael J. Kennish (Principal Investigator), Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University (kennish@imcs.rutgers.edu). -M. Kennish

Development in northwestern New Jersey has caused less loss of forest cover than in southwestern New Jersey. This is one of the findings in the recent paper by Kristi MacDonald and Tom Rudel, from Cook College's Department of Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources and the Department of Human Ecology, respectively. Titled "Sprawl and forest cover: what is the relationship?", the paper explains the difference by the fact that concern for protections of view sheds and the difficulties and hazards of building on slopes led northwestern municipalities to largely protect forested uplands at the price of increased housing cost for the area. In southwestern municipalities the lack of "scenic amenities", as they term it, caused developers and towns to site primarily with convenience to major roads as a priority. This eliminated more equally forest and farmland, little of which was protected. The study also finds that some developed areas have gained modest amounts of forest cover in recent years. For a look at the full text of their study, follow this link. -B. Barbour

The Millenium Ecosystem Assessment (or MA for short)is the name of a landmark international effort to supply decision makers and the public with scientific information concerning ecosystem change and its impact on human well-being along with options for responding to those changes. It was just completed in March 2005and is well worth a look. In addition to the report itself there are data sets, slide shows, and very effective graphics.

One of the most useful concepts in the report may be the notion of "ecosystem services". These are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems. Healthy ecosystems dobasic tasks like purify water and clean the air. The ecosystem services concept is used to help address what it really costs us to destroy ecosystems and replace the services they provide with technology. You can learn more about MA at http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx . -B. Barbour

The Water Quality Information Center at the National Agricultural Library has made available an improved version of its database of online documents covering water and agriculture.

The new version allows you to locate freely available online documents in several

ways:
* from an alphabetical list of titles
* by subject areas, such as nutrient management
* by searching the database for specific topics, titles, authors or
publishers

More than 1,700 documents are currently available. The database is online at http://grande.nal.usda.gov/wqic/ .

Since links to documents often change, please notify us at wqic@nal.usda.gov if you are unable to access a document in the database. Also, please send suggestions for additions to the database to wqic@nal.usda.gov . -Joseph R. Makuch, Ph.D., Coordinator, Water Quality Information Center National Agricultural Library.

The inaugural classes of Rutgers Environmental Stewards in Essex and Gloucester Counties are mid-way through their training and had the benefit of 2 recent field trips. The Essex group, under the able direction of Rutgers Program Associate Jan Zientek, toured the Passaic River learning of its importance as both a source of drinking water,a waste disposal conduit and a cultural focul point for many communities in northern New Jersey. The Gloucester class, most effectively aided by Rutgers Program Associate

Mary Cummings, visted the NJ Audubon's Rancocas Nature Preserve where Mary Belko, Director of the preserve, helped them under stand the serious, harmful impacts invasive species are having in forests across New Jersey. The formal portion of their training will conclude in June and the Steward interns will then be placed in intern postions with public and private entities to gain further experiance solving environmental problems in New Jersey. -B. Barbour

In the 15 months we have been publishing there has been a steady increase of those who have taken advantage of our on-line notification service (subscribers). We have moved to a topic based format, that we hope makes the newsletters useful and interesting to our readers over a longer period of time. Ina addition to our current 286 subscribers Rutgers Enviro-Notes had 3,705 web visits in 2004. Tell a friend about Rutgers Enviro-Notes! -B.Barbour

Now available on the web @ www.rcre.rutgers.edu is the following updated fact
sheet:

FS511 - "Mummy Berry: An Important Disease of Highbush Blueberry", authored
by Dr. William J. Sciarappa, Monmouth County Agricultural Agent and Dr.
Peter Oudemans, Extension Specialist in Pathology. This is a four page fact
sheet.

FS519 - "Pot-In-Pot Nursery Production System: What You Need to Know Before
Establishment", authored by Dr. Gladis Zinati, Extension Specialist in
Nursery Management. This is a four page fact sheet.

FS512 - "Botrytis Blight in Highbush Blueberry", authored by Dr. William J.
Sciarappa, Monmouth County Agricultural Agent and Dr. Peter Oudemans,
Extension Specialist in Pathology. This is a three page fact sheet.

FS050 - "How to Hire a Lawn Care Company", authored by Nicholas Polanin,
Somerset County Agricultural Agent, Pedro Perdomo, Morris County
Agricultural Agent, William T. Hlubik, Middlesex County Agricultural Agent,
and Martha Maletta, Hunterdon County Horticultural Consultant. This is a
three page fact sheet.

E002 - "New Jersey Commercial TreeFruit Production Guide, 2005". $15/copy. This is a three hole punched, spiral bound, 176 page manual.

FS583 - "Operating Mowers Safely", authored by Dr. Zane R. Helsel,
Department Chair of Extension Specialists and Dr. John A. Meade, Extension
Specialist, Emeritus, in Weed Science.

FS701 - "Restoring Emotional Balance After a Disaster", authored by Marilou
Rochford, Cape May County Family and Community Health Educator.

FS702 - "Helping Children Recover From Disasters", authored by Marilou
Rochford, Cape May County Family and Community Health Educator.

FS221 - "Asparagus Beetles"
FS222 - "Blister Beetles"
FS223 - "Carrot Rust Fly"
FS226 - "Hornworms"
FS227 - "Mexican Bean Beetle"
FS229 - "Squash Vine Borers"
FS231 - "Cabbage Looper"
FS232 - "Diamondback Moth"
FS234 - "Garden Symphylans"
FS236 - "Garden Leafhopper"
FS238 - "Melonworm"
FS242 - "Three-Lined Potato Beetle"
FS244 - "Tarnished Plant Bug"
FS247 - "Negro Bug"
FS248 - "Melon Aphid"

All are authored by Dr. Gerald M. Ghidiu, Extension Specialist in Vegetable
Entomology, and are a part of the "Insect Pests of the Home Garden Series".
All fact sheets are 2 pages in length.

E299 - "Pest and Pesticide Management Practices for Nursery Operations",
authored by Dr. Gladis Zinati, Extension Specialist in Nursery Management.
This is a seven page bulletin.

FS433 - "Drinking Water Standards", authored by Dr. Christopher C. Obropta,
Extension Specialist in Water Resources and Lisa Galloway Evrard, Program
Associate in Water Resources.

E299 - "Pest and Pesticide Management Practices in Nursery Operations",
authored by Dr. Gladis Zinati, Extension Specialist in Nursery Management.

FS532 - "Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems: Accessorizing Your Septic
System", authored by Dr. Christopher C. Obropta, Extension Specialist in
Water Resources and David Berry, student in Bioresource Engineering.

FS547 - "Diagnosing and Controlling Fungal Diseases of Tomato in the
Home Garden", authored by Dr. Andy Wyenandt, Extension Specialist in
Vegetable Pathology and Peter Nitzsche, Morris County Agricultural Agent.

Updated - FS360 - "Animal Repellents for New Jersey Christmas Tree Growers",
authored by Dr. Mark C. Vodak, Extension Specialist in Forestry and Dr. John
Grande, Director, Snyder Research and Extension Farm.

	Rutgers Enviro-Notes Current environmental research, news, and activities from the New Jersey Agricultural Experiment Station and the Rutgers community
&Vol. 2, No. 2	April-June, 2005&
Contents When All the Land Is Spoken For Downzoning and the “Buildout Scenario” The Garden State and Manifest Destiny Stormwater Outreach in the Barnegat Bay Watershed Submerged Aquatic Vegetation in New Jersey Coastal Bays Sprawl and Forest Cover The Concept of Ecosystem Services in a Fully Developed Landscape On-line Database of Water and Agriculture Documents Rutgers First Master Environmental Steward Classes On Tour Enviro-Notes Popularity Grows New Pubs How to Subscribe What Will It be Like When All the Land is Spoken For? Land use is the arguably the top environmental issue in New Jersey, but it is a big, unwieldy topic that often frustrates efforts at objective analysis. To help focus our thinking and provoke discussion we have elected to consider land use in the context of the proposition that in 40 years New Jersey will be fully built out. This comes from an estimate in a 2001 paper by John Hasse and Richard G Lathrop, Director of the Grant Walton Center for Remote Sensing at Rutgers. What does 40 years to buildout mean? Is New Jersey unique in facing buildout? Does the prospect of being the first state to reach buildout suggest actions that should be initiated in preparation? What impacts can we expect on the economy, the environment and the quality of life? New Jersey is one of the most densely populated areas on earth, but there are others. Buildout implies a finite supply of land and socially imposed limits to growth. New Jersey’s land is limited by virtue of its boundaries, but, unlike an island (Taiwan, Hawaii?), there is adjacent land outside it’s boundaries which may support development or services that will impact New Jersey. Since New Jersey is a fully zoned state it is somewhat unique in that this zoning is one of the main socially imposed constraints on land use. Other constraints are land dedicated to parks and land preservation programs. Infrastructure such as roads, water and sanitation will be and are limiting. Will the socio-political regulations such as zoning and land preservation fall to the demand for increased density. Will technological developments enable increasing density without environmental and social collapse? Will the economy support all this? These are some of the questions that occur when contemplating life in full buildout. The answers are largely up to each of us to discover but to help stimulate your thought we have invited some of the top researchers, scholars and thinkers in the state to report on their work and help shed some light on this topic. - B. Barbour Downzoning and the “buildout scenario” The more important question to be asked is not when build-out will be reached, but what will New Jersey’s built-out landscape look like and how will it function for both New Jersey’s human and nonhuman community. ― Haase and Lathrop, “Measuring Urban Growth in New Jersey,” Cook College, Rutgers University, 2001 The figure of 40 years to buildout is based on a straight-line extrapolation of past trends in land conversion. This is acknowledged openly in a lengthy section on “cautions and caveats” contained in the fine Cook College report (quoted above) that generated this provocative number. My purpose is not to contest the 40-year figure on this basis. In fact, authors Haas and Lathrop consider a number of buildout scenarios, concluding that “even if the exact date cannot be foreseen with certainty…near total build-out will likely be approached in New Jersey sometime within the middle of this century.” This statement seems reasonable, and it does not change the present discussion in any substantive way. If you allow yourself to consider rather sharp departures from trend, however ― and especially if you realize that the prospect of impending buildout can itself affect political behavior in a radical new way ― then you might be able to get some important insights into the ultimate character of “buildout New Jersey,” if not necessarily its timing. Can there be any doubt that the prospect of buildout in 40 or 50 years was a contributing factor in the passage of the recent Highlands legislation? With buildout half a century away, New Jersey voters seem to feel that their back is already up against the wall. In some ways, the state’s new land use activism shows evidence of a remarkably long time horizon for the typical politician, which ought to be applauded. In other ways, it appears that voters and politicians may be panicking, in the process going beyond what regional planners regard as effective environmental design for the long run. Consider the phenomenon of local downzoning, defined as a substantial increase in the minimum lot size permitted on undeveloped land. In a study I conducted with former Cook Executive Dean Soji Adelaja, I discovered that some 86 of the state’s 266 exurban communities (32%) had engaged in downzoning since 1995 alone. This represents a rapid acceleration in this practice, with implications for buildout that are very far from straight-line indeed. Let’s say that five-acre zoning in the state’s undeveloped areas becomes the norm, but homeowner demand for such large lots remains robust. Hasse and Lathrop predict that in this case, buildout in New Jersey would actually take place in 20 years, not 40―though obviously, much open space would remain in “backyards.” Alternatively, if a residential market for such large lots does not materialize, the state’s farmers could be stuck in a kind of limbo: uninterested in keeping their land open (and farmed) because it is no longer appreciating in value, but unable to find a buyer. This is a scenario that should perhaps be given somewhat more credence. It might feature accelerated large-lot zoning at sizes of 10 acres or more, followed by non-development and a cohort of very unhappy farmers. The result would be a kind of instantaneous buildout (defined roughly as the end of growth), featuring a ton of privately-held open space that is essentially unmarketable. Naturally, as an economist I think can contribute some insights on land’s marketability for residential use that would be helpful for this kind of forecasting. My broader point, however, is that political anti-growth sentiment has the potential to lower New Jersey’s future densities to an unknown, and possibly dramatic, extent. Technically the Highlands legislation is designed to redistribute density rather than lower it. But a political realist must acknowledge that future Highlands densities are likely to be lower, overall, than they would have been in the absence of the Act. None of this would necessarily be a problem if there were a universal consensus that reduced overall densities, achieved using local large-lot zoning, represent the best way to achieve the state’s environmental planning objectives ― giving due consideration to all the policy alternatives that are politically and financially feasible today. In the academic literature, local large-lot zoning is generally perceived as the growth management tool most likely to be driven by exclusionary and fiscal motivations, and least likely to be environmentally sensitive. This broad theory on motives is suggestive, but it cannot be said that it adds up to a definitive condemnation of the practice. We do not currently have good evidence on downzoning’s effectiveness as a planning tool. I am afraid we do not have a lot of time to find out. - Dr. Paul Gottlieb, RCRE Specialist in Land Use Policy. You can read the full text of Dr.Gottlieb's recent article on "The Political Economy of Downzoning by clicking here. The Garden State: Where Manifest Destiny Meets Build-Out It’s now been just a little more than 43 years since New Jersey voters approved the first Green Acres Bond Act in 1961 to purchase open space throughout the Garden State. Since that time, the preservation of open space and farmland, as well as aggressive efforts to combat sprawl, have become a mainstay of our politics and public policy here in the most densely populated state in the nation. New Jersey has devoted significant public resources and implemented substantial pubic policy initiatives to combat sprawl and win the race for open space. The list of these efforts is impressive by any standard: nine bond referenda dedicating more than $1.4 billion for land and development easement purchases since 1961; the landmark Farmland Assessment program which was written into the state constitution in 1964; a state and regional land use regulatory system which is among the most stringent in the country; and last, but not least, the constitutional dedication in 1998 of some $98 million per year for thirty years to provide a stable source of funding through 2009 for the ambitious goal of preserving one million of the state’s remaining two million undeveloped acres. And, for good measure, in more than 200 of our 566 municipalities and in all 21 of our counties, local voters have approved dedicated local property taxes for land acquisition, which means that New Jersey has almost twice as many such local open space funds than exist in any other state. Thus far, these public policies have achieved impressive results: more than 1.3 million acres of open space and farmland have already been preserved by governmental and non-profit conservation organizations, and these numbers are climbing every day. This means that roughly 27% of New Jersey’s land area of approximately 4.8 million acres is already permanently preserved, and that percentage could go as high as 35 - 40% within the next decade. Yet for all of the intensity of this determined assault on sprawl, New Jersey also has the distinction of being on an inevitable trajectory to become the very first state in the nation where complete build-out occurs. Variably estimated to occur within 25 to 40 years, this build-out means that, within the foreseeable future, the Garden State will exhaust its supply of vacant land available for development. The likely impacts of this phenomenon could be staggering, and New Jersey will have no other state’s experience to turn to as we come to grips with this new reality. For starters, it most certainly means that the next several decades may well represent the last chance to finish the Herculean open space task which began only 43 years ago. If we wish to preserve a critical mass of prime farmland sufficient to continue to warrant our nickname, to provide ample passive and active recreational open space for our citizens, and to safeguard the very functioning of the ecosystems which provide us with clean drinking water, flood control and provide habitat for a host of plant and animal species, we must act quickly before it is too late. The emerging reality of build-out means that it is time for all New Jerseyans to think deeply about what kind of state we want to leave to future generations, and to continue to find ways to harness new public policies to implement that vision. For our public institutions, this means that the next few decades are no time to rest on our laurels, but, rather, a time to re-focus our efforts on specific and even more innovative public policies. Clearly, we will need the research and scientific basis for sound financial and social policies which can maximize our ability to shape the future New Jersey. This suggests that we must accelerate public and private programs to redevelop and revitalize our cities and older suburbs while also maximizing both the quantity of preserved acreage across the state, as well as the ecological value and accessibility of that acreage, if we truly wish to preserve the future quality of life in communities across our state. New Jersey residents and especially, New Jersey voters, seem to instinctively comprehend what is at stake as we approach build-out, and there is every likelihood that they will not only continue to support, but will likely demand that their governments prepare the state for this brave new world. For our part, we here at Conservation Resources are committed to providing the conservation community with financial and technical assistance necessary to insure success. In order to accomplish this, we have established seven geographic funds covering the entire state, and we are in the process of raising capital for these funds so that we can support exemplary conservation projects throughout the Garden State. To learn more about what we are doing to help prepare New Jersey for build-out, please visit us at www.conservationresourcesinc. -Michael Catania, President, Conservation Resources Inc. Stormwater Outreach in the Barnegat Bay Watershed In March of 2004, the State of New Jersey adopted the Phase II Stormwater Management Rules. These rules set forth guidelines for municipal implementation of the new stormwater regulations through the New Jersey Pollution Discharge Elimination System (NJPDES) Permit Program and rules for new construction and redevelopment through the Division of Watershed Management. Through the NJPDES permit program municipalities are required to comply with new regulations such as adopting new ordinances, retrofitting storm drain grates, street sweeping, writing a stormwater pollution prevention plan and a stormwater management plan, and regulating best management measures in the municipal public works departments, to name a few. In order to assist the 37 municipalities with in Barnegat Bay watershed, the Barnegat Bay Phase II Municipal Steering Committee was formed. This committee is a group of interested county, academic, and local educational organizations, who have organized together to provide outreach and assistance to municipalities in the Barnegat Bay Watershed regarding the new Phase II stormwater regulations. The steering committees’ efforts in the watershed have consists of workshops, technical assistance opportunities, public outreach assistance and stormwater resources. Topics for outreach have included low impact design, writing a municipal stormwater management plan, Department of Public Works requirements, and overviews of the municipal stormwater permitting program. Additionally, we provided municipalities a timeline matrix indicating when requirements are due and storm drain labels and door hangers to educate municipal residents about stormwater and no point source pollution. To date, the steering committee has either offered or planned 5 workshops around the watershed. One additional workshop will be planned for a future date. Funding for this outreach has been obtained through the Barnegat Bay National Estuary Program and the Jacques Cousteau National Estuarine Research Reserve’s Coastal Training Program (CTP). Additional information about stormwater outreach and other municipal outreach programs offered through the CTP can be found at: www.jcnerr.org/coastal_training . -Lisa Weiss, Watershed Coordinator, Jacques Cousteau National Estuarine Research Reserve Submerged Aquatic Vegetation in New Jersey Coastal Bays In 2004, researchers at the Jacques Cousteau National Estuarine Research Reserve (Figure 1) conducted detailed sampling of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in Little Egg Harbor to determine: (1) the demographic characteristics and spatial habitat change of SAV (Zostera marina and Ruppia maritima) in the system over an annual growing period; (2) the species composition, relative abundance, and potential impacts of benthic macroalgae on the SAV beds; and (3) the potential impacts of brown tide (Aureococcus anophagefferans) on the SAV. Two disjunct SAV beds in Little Egg Harbor, covering a total area of ~1700 ha, were sampled at ten equally spaced points along six, east-west trending transects in spring, summer, and fall of 2004. Sampling was conducted during June, August, and October, and November. More than 175 samples were collected at 60 transect sites during the sampling period. At each sampling site, the following demographic data were collected: percent cover per SAV species, aboveground and belowground biomass per SAV species, sheath and stem biomass per SAV species, leaf biomass per SAV species, average shoot height, average shoot width, number of shoots, as well as abundance and percent cover by macroalgae species. In addition, physico-chemical data (temperature, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, and percent sand, silt, and clay) were also collected at each sampling site. Nutrient data (ammonium, nitrate, nitrite, total organic nitrogen, and orthophosphate) were also collect along the sampling transects. These data are being analyzed through spring 2005, with a report of findings scheduled for summer 2005. The major objective of this project is to determine the changes that occur in demographic characteristics of the SAV during an annual growing period in Little Egg Harbor. The ultimate goal is to develop a better understanding of the natural variability of the SAV beds and to assess potential human impacts on them. The SAV beds are essential habitat to numerous estuarine organisms in New Jersey. Some of the questions that are being addressed by this investigation include the following: • What quantitative changes take place in aboveground and belowground biomass, shoot or stem density, leaf and shoot width, and maximum canopy height of SAV beds over a growing season? • How variable is the percent cover by each SAV species within the field survey areas? Is seasonal dominance evident among the species? Are shifts in spatial distribution of the SAV species significant within a growing season? • Do the SAV bed boundaries expand, contract, or remain unchanged over a seasonal sampling period? • Where is the maximum species abundance observed in the sampling segments and can this abundance be related to specific environmental factors? • Can the surveys differentiate natural variability of the SAV from that induced by anthropogenic activities? This project is in response to multiple coastal management needs. SAV is recognized as a critically important benthic habitat that receives special consideration in New Jersey. Because of the critical importance of SAV as habitat, the same type of study will be conducted in Barnegat Bay during spring, summer, and fall of 2005. Additional information on this research project can be obtained from Dr. Michael J. Kennish (Principal Investigator), Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University (kennish@imcs.rutgers.edu). -M. Kennish Sprawl and Forest Cover Development in northwestern New Jersey has caused less loss of forest cover than in southwestern New Jersey. This is one of the findings in the recent paper by Kristi MacDonald and Tom Rudel, from Cook College's Department of Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources and the Department of Human Ecology, respectively. Titled "Sprawl and forest cover: what is the relationship?", the paper explains the difference by the fact that concern for protections of view sheds and the difficulties and hazards of building on slopes led northwestern municipalities to largely protect forested uplands at the price of increased housing cost for the area. In southwestern municipalities the lack of "scenic amenities", as they term it, caused developers and towns to site primarily with convenience to major roads as a priority. This eliminated more equally forest and farmland, little of which was protected. The study also finds that some developed areas have gained modest amounts of forest cover in recent years. For a look at the full text of their study, follow this link. -B. Barbour The Concept of "Ecosystem Services" in a Fully Developed Landscape The Millenium Ecosystem Assessment (or MA for short)is the name of a landmark international effort to supply decision makers and the public with scientific information concerning ecosystem change and its impact on human well-being along with options for responding to those changes. It was just completed in March 2005and is well worth a look. In addition to the report itself there are data sets, slide shows, and very effective graphics. One of the most useful concepts in the report may be the notion of "ecosystem services". These are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems. Healthy ecosystems dobasic tasks like purify water and clean the air. The ecosystem services concept is used to help address what it really costs us to destroy ecosystems and replace the services they provide with technology. You can learn more about MA at http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx . -B. Barbour On-line Database of Water and Agriculture Documents The Water Quality Information Center at the National Agricultural Library has made available an improved version of its database of online documents covering water and agriculture. The new version allows you to locate freely available online documents in several ways: * from an alphabetical list of titles * by subject areas, such as nutrient management * by searching the database for specific topics, titles, authors or publishers More than 1,700 documents are currently available. The database is online at http://grande.nal.usda.gov/wqic/ . Since links to documents often change, please notify us at wqic@nal.usda.gov if you are unable to access a document in the database. Also, please send suggestions for additions to the database to wqic@nal.usda.gov . -Joseph R. Makuch, Ph.D., Coordinator, Water Quality Information Center National Agricultural Library. Rutgers First Master Environmental Steward Classes Progressing Nicely The inaugural classes of Rutgers Environmental Stewards in Essex and Gloucester Counties are mid-way through their training and had the benefit of 2 recent field trips. The Essex group, under the able direction of Rutgers Program Associate Jan Zientek, toured the Passaic River learning of its importance as both a source of drinking water,a waste disposal conduit and a cultural focul point for many communities in northern New Jersey. The Gloucester class, most effectively aided by Rutgers Program Associate Mary Cummings, visted the NJ Audubon's Rancocas Nature Preserve where Mary Belko, Director of the preserve, helped them under stand the serious, harmful impacts invasive species are having in forests across New Jersey. The formal portion of their training will conclude in June and the Steward interns will then be placed in intern postions with public and private entities to gain further experiance solving environmental problems in New Jersey. -B. Barbour Rutgers Enviro-Notes Grows in Popularity In the 15 months we have been publishing there has been a steady increase of those who have taken advantage of our on-line notification service (subscribers). We have moved to a topic based format, that we hope makes the newsletters useful and interesting to our readers over a longer period of time. Ina addition to our current 286 subscribers Rutgers Enviro-Notes had 3,705 web visits in 2004. Tell a friend about Rutgers Enviro-Notes! -B.Barbour New Publications from Cooperative Extension Now available on the web @ www.rcre.rutgers.edu is the following updated fact sheet: FS511 - "Mummy Berry: An Important Disease of Highbush Blueberry", authored by Dr. William J. Sciarappa, Monmouth County Agricultural Agent and Dr. Peter Oudemans, Extension Specialist in Pathology. This is a four page fact sheet. FS519 - "Pot-In-Pot Nursery Production System: What You Need to Know Before Establishment", authored by Dr. Gladis Zinati, Extension Specialist in Nursery Management. This is a four page fact sheet. FS512 - "Botrytis Blight in Highbush Blueberry", authored by Dr. William J. Sciarappa, Monmouth County Agricultural Agent and Dr. Peter Oudemans, Extension Specialist in Pathology. This is a three page fact sheet. FS050 - "How to Hire a Lawn Care Company", authored by Nicholas Polanin, Somerset County Agricultural Agent, Pedro Perdomo, Morris County Agricultural Agent, William T. Hlubik, Middlesex County Agricultural Agent, and Martha Maletta, Hunterdon County Horticultural Consultant. This is a three page fact sheet. E002 - "New Jersey Commercial TreeFruit Production Guide, 2005". $15/copy. This is a three hole punched, spiral bound, 176 page manual. FS583 - "Operating Mowers Safely", authored by Dr. Zane R. Helsel, Department Chair of Extension Specialists and Dr. John A. Meade, Extension Specialist, Emeritus, in Weed Science. FS701 - "Restoring Emotional Balance After a Disaster", authored by Marilou Rochford, Cape May County Family and Community Health Educator. FS702 - "Helping Children Recover From Disasters", authored by Marilou Rochford, Cape May County Family and Community Health Educator. FS221 - "Asparagus Beetles" FS222 - "Blister Beetles" FS223 - "Carrot Rust Fly" FS226 - "Hornworms" FS227 - "Mexican Bean Beetle" FS229 - "Squash Vine Borers" FS231 - "Cabbage Looper" FS232 - "Diamondback Moth" FS234 - "Garden Symphylans" FS236 - "Garden Leafhopper" FS238 - "Melonworm" FS242 - "Three-Lined Potato Beetle" FS244 - "Tarnished Plant Bug" FS247 - "Negro Bug" FS248 - "Melon Aphid" All are authored by Dr. Gerald M. Ghidiu, Extension Specialist in Vegetable Entomology, and are a part of the "Insect Pests of the Home Garden Series". All fact sheets are 2 pages in length. E299 - "Pest and Pesticide Management Practices for Nursery Operations", authored by Dr. Gladis Zinati, Extension Specialist in Nursery Management. This is a seven page bulletin. FS433 - "Drinking Water Standards", authored by Dr. Christopher C. Obropta, Extension Specialist in Water Resources and Lisa Galloway Evrard, Program Associate in Water Resources. E299 - "Pest and Pesticide Management Practices in Nursery Operations", authored by Dr. Gladis Zinati, Extension Specialist in Nursery Management. FS532 - "Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems: Accessorizing Your Septic System", authored by Dr. Christopher C. Obropta, Extension Specialist in Water Resources and David Berry, student in Bioresource Engineering. FS547 - "Diagnosing and Controlling Fungal Diseases of Tomato in the Home Garden", authored by Dr. Andy Wyenandt, Extension Specialist in Vegetable Pathology and Peter Nitzsche, Morris County Agricultural Agent. Updated - FS360 - "Animal Repellents for New Jersey Christmas Tree Growers", authored by Dr. Mark C. Vodak, Extension Specialist in Forestry and Dr. John Grande, Director, Snyder Research and Extension Farm.
How to automatically receive notice of new editions of Rutgers Enviro-Notes: To subscribe send a blank email to: join-rutgers_enviro-notes@gselist.org . To un-subscribe send a blank e-mail to: leave-rutgers_enviro-notes@gselist.org Rutgers Enviro-Notes is a publication of Rutgers Cooperative Extension. Bruce Barbour, Editor. Contact: Barbour@rce.rutgers.edu. Use of items from this newsletter is freely permitted but attribution to Rutgers Cooperative Extension is requested.

Rutgers Enviro-Notes

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